Tuesday 23 February 2016

STRATEGY OF THE DAY




18/03/2016
Strategy of the day: Track the trend (part 1 of 4)
T3B taught us to track uptrending stocks and also advised us that 1 year high is the key criteria.
However, how do we track if market overall has been down below 1 year?
William O’Neil said:
·         If you buy during a market uptrend, you have 75% chance of being right
·         If you buy during a market downtrend, you have 75% chance of being wrong

Let’s say you like to choose trades from mid cap, so you follow FBM70:-
Example (1) say e.g from Jul 2014 to Jun 2015 (blue box). In this time frame of 1 year, the market is down (shown by brown line).
Example (2) the whole of 2015 was side trend (orange box shows 1 year of 2015) shown by blue line sideways. But the year was volatile and had big up to down swings.
Example (3) the current time frame, from Feb 2015 to today is technically a downtrend (gold line shows a downwards).


So how do we trade if the market is not in an uptrend at all if under T3B rules?
The first rule of T3B criteria for S1 is uptrend follow by break high.  


No 1 year uptrend, no break high, how?




Friday 22 January 2016

7-year sabbatical cycle (additional commentary)

(A)  How low will crude oil price fall?

This analysis is based on a talk by a speaker from T3B Singapore.
The speaker has many years of experience in stock market trading and applies Cycle Analysis (CA) to predict and time his trades.

Tuesday 12 January 2016

The 7-year sabbatical cycle (part 3)

Part (C) : commodities and the next bullish markets.

The final part in this series will be sub-divided as follow:-
i.                 The Dow Jones Industrial Index forecast
ii.                Commodities prices, gold and oil futures.
iii.               China

i.                 The Dow Jones Industrial Index
Further to the article in part 2 of this series, the speaker mentioned of Kitchin cycle.
Kitchin cycle is a short business cycle of about 40 months discovered in the 1920s by Joseph Kitchin.
Kitchin said that in good years, the commodities supply get flooded and so prices dropped. Hence, it is necessary to reduce output so that prices can rise again. This cycle is about 3-5 years. This also explains that there is a sort of mid-term hiccup in between the 7-year cycle.

Monday 11 January 2016

THE 7-YEAR SABBATICAL CYCLE (PART 2)

Part (B) : the 7-year sabbatical cycle
 (please refer to previous post, part 1. This is a continuation)

The wealth code of 7 (The sabbatical number 7)
It is noted in the Jewish Bible that they rest on the 7th year after 6 years of good harvest. In modern times, still Jewish are wealthy so is it due to this recognition of the 7-year cycle?

The 7-year sabbatical cycle

Talk by speaker from T3B Singapore, @ T3B Malaysia on 9 Jan, 2016 (Part 1 of 3).

The speaker has many years of experience in stock market trading and applies Cycle Analysis (CA) to predict and time his trades.

This article serves to provide further information to the speaker’s argument pertaining to his application of CA to stock trading. There will be 3 parts:-
Part (A) : Sovereign debt crisis.
Part (B) : The 7-year sabbatical cycle.
Part (C) : commodities, the next bullish markets.