Tuesday 25 October 2011

[10.8] Trading plan, cashflow and stops


Folks, friends and acquaintances asked me about my trades and I exclaimed “never better”.  Some confided in me with dejected looks and told me how much losses they have made.

From my own experience as well as that of most amateurs in this stock trading game, most if not all folks don’t sell when prices acted against their plan. Nicholas Darvas (who wrote “How I made 2 million in the stock market”) said: Investors are pure gamblers when they stay with a stock even if it continues to drop. A non gambler must get out when his stocks fall.  

That is exactly how most traders became gambling investors and console themselves that it is alright to hold on until the stocks pick up again. In other words, they are willing to allow their hard-earned savings to be thrown away indefinitely without any indicative evidence of recovery. It is all HOPE!

Emotion is the worst enemy in share market trading. Hence, a proper trading plan is pertinent to ensure a higher probability of winning any trade.
1.     Cashflow plan
2.    Open positions
3.    stops

Cashflow plan
I usually encourage people to trade with money they can afford to lose. Of course we do not like to lose money but at the very least, we do not have to borrow money to cover the losses, if any.
Some like to trade with margins for leverage. In fact, it is borrowing to gamble in the biggest casino if no proper plans are established. For margin accounts, I propose to use the funds (borrowing) to add positions in advancing and winning trades only.

Open positions
The next area of concern is the number of opened positions. Novice in share trading like to ask for tips and buy whatever sounded good. In the end, he/she has many opened counters. It will be difficult to monitor.
Some gurus encourage a 50/50 win/loss ratio. That means, open 10 trades in 10 counters and hope 5 win with 10% profits and 5 with 5% cut loss. I am not sure how these will enhance chart reading skills and instead may confuse the person following such manner. I prefer 2 or most 3 at one time. Nicholas Darvas (who wrote “How I made 2 million in the stock market”) had many positions and ended not much gain/loss but he made his big money through a few stocks.
Watch a few strong performers and buy one or two (depending on your capital size). Smaller capital traders should hold a small portfolio of one or two.

Stops
Nowadays, most stock brokers have online platforms to trade and the software have elaborated “Stops” of many combinations.
First entry in every trade must have a stop loss – this is the support level from the charts.
Next, when the stock prices begin to rise, move the stop up to the breakeven level so that you will not lose if the price suddenly reverses.
Finally, monitor the stock movement daily by looking at the end-of-day chart only. As a busy employee trying to make extra money, you have no time to check prices in the day. Most successful traders don’t look at prices in the opening hours.
Let the price run until weak signals appear. Sell when weakness confirm.


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Monday 17 October 2011

[10.7] Is HK market back on up trend?


HK market has run up quite strongly last few days but still needs a bit more convincing indications. Let us look at the Hang Seng Index chart:


1.  It has not crossed the downtrend line yet
2.  Though already above the base line, I prefer it to close above the box
3.  The short term GMMA lines are still below the long term lines
4.  Momentum is rising but still not strong enough to close near the zero line
5.  Last Friday closed down with quite a fair bit of profit taking (but reduced volume)

If Monday rises, then the bull may be staying for quite a while. In following trend, and maybe lead by US market, I will consider long trades instead.

Stock markets are fill with sentiments. There may be plenty of bearish news from EU and the West but still Asian markets rise together with the West. Still the same - follow the trend to trade.


Sunday 16 October 2011

[10-.6] US market back on uptrend


Take a look at the S&P500 index chart:

1.  The Ichimoku Cloud conversion line (9 day) touch the base line (26 day)
2.  The momentum indicator touch the zero level
3.  The Guppy GMMA short term lines cross above the long term lines
4.  Last Friday's closed above and out of the box


Any further rise above 1230 will hit the top of the cloud.

I will not predict the direction of the market but follow the trend of the market.
If the chart shows up trend, I will trade long and buy call. Of course I will protect my trades and set stop loss in case the trend changes down. For the time being, there are more signs of strength than otherwise.

Do you notice that last Thursday was a hammer candle and follow by a strong marubosu candle?








Sunday 9 October 2011

[10.4] free stock screener for HK stocks



Do you know you can screen for good stocks to trade in the HK share market? Even better that it is free provided by Google Finance, isn’t it?

The key problem is it is in Chinese.
To open it in English, use Google Chrome with translation.

 
Criteria for up trending stocks:-
  1. Volume – set to 2 million shares (if in Chinese, set to 200* minimum){to filter out those laggard stocks that are not in the institutional portfolio}
  2. Price at 13 week gain (i.e. at least 3 month or quarter high – up trending)
  3. Earnings per share positive (good fundamentals)
  4. Business data, return on equity positive in recent years (good fundamentals)
  5. 5 year profit growth positive
link for up trend:

Last scan results:-
CLP, Cheung Kong (1038), China Mobile (941)


Criteria for down trending stocks ready to short:-
  1. Volume – set to 2 million shares (if in Chinese, set to 200* minimum){to filter out those laggard stocks that are not in the institutional portfolio}
  2. Price at 52 week low (one year low stocks confirmed down trending)
  3. Earnings per share positive (good fundamentals)
  4. Business data, return on equity positive in recent years (good fundamentals)
  5. 5 year profit growth positive
 link for downtrend:

Last scan results with top volumes:-
CMBM, Sinopec, Jiangxi Copper, China Life, etc



[10.3] Buy put option – DOW



In the previous article (ref: 10.2), one of the 3 examples therein was DOW. This stock shows signs of weakness and is still trading below the cloud. If it can retreat and drop further next week, there is a good opportunity to buy put option on it.

DOW -  15 min chart extract from TOS

From the chart above, the support is about $24.00
If the price trades below $23.95, it will be below the cloud and out of the box (yellow).
For put option, we pick the following criteria:-
Period: Jan 2012 (over 100 days)
Strike: 24.00 (will be in-the-money and above trade price of 23.95)

DOW – put option chart of DOW Jan’12 @ strike 24


Volatility: < 60% acceptable (in the current volatile market)
Open interest: 151? Too low?
Agree that the present open interest is low. However, compare to the next strike of 25.00 (O/I = 9259), it will be interesting to see more O/I when market begins to trade lower prices.
Notice that the premium shot up from 2.40 to close at 2.72 with a theoretical level of 3.06

For those who like to do auto-trade, you may like to do this:

We place order to buy the put option with a possible LIMIT till 3.10 premium with a condition that share price trades below $24.00

Stop loss will be about $24.75 (top of the cloud) to $25.25 (top of the yellow box) depending on your risk adversity.
 
Disclaimer: This article is for education only and not a proposal, invitation or advice to buy or sell shares.


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